Shock poll: Marine Le Pen ahead of Macron in second round

A poll released this week by a Brazil-based company has found populist leader Marine Le Pen may lead President Emmanuel Macron if France votes in the first round of its presidential election this weekend.

The poll, part of a broader poll surrounding the French presidential election, was released Thursday by Brazil-based firm Atlas Intelligence and claims Marine Le Pen overtook President Macron in a second-round runoff.

While the poll expects President Macron to win this weekend’s first round with at least 27.8 percent of the vote, while Ms Le Pen is second with 21.3 percent, the latter is ahead in the second round with 41.4 Macron percent of the vote to 40.8 for Macron

18 percent say they are either undecided or have no intention of voting.

In a possible second round against conservative writer and pundit Eric Zemmour, center-right candidate Valérie Pécresse or far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, Macron would be decisive primarily because of the number of people who would do both, according to the poll not winning, leaving their ballot blank, or unsure who to vote for.

Le Pen also had the lowest negative voter attitude rating among the candidates, with 54.5 percent seeing her in a negative light, compared to 55.8 percent for President Macron.

A total of 68.8 percent said they viewed Eric Zemmour negatively, with left-wing Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo having an even worse score of 69.5 percent who viewed her negatively.

The poll coincides with more recent opinion polls showing Le Pen gaining ground on President Macron, who has avoided taking part in debates between the presidential candidates going into the polls this weekend.

Political scientist Nicolas Tenzer acknowledged that a Le Pen victory could be possible, saying: “With a high abstention rate, which is possible, and some people’s hatred of the President, there could be a real surprise,” adding: “The idea of ​​Le Pen winning is not impossible.”

In the final days before the election, both Le Pen and Zemmour highlighted the death of Jeremy Cohen, who was hit by a tram and died in the no-go Paris suburb of Seine-Saint-Denis in February.

Initially thought to be an accident, footage later emerged showing Cohen being pursued and beaten by a mob of people shortly before his death, raising questions about whether his death was due to him fleeing an anti-Semitic attack or not.

“The Images of Death by Jeremy Cohen are chilled. I am appalled by the death of another of our children and the deafening silence on the facts for two months. Did he die to escape the scum? Did he die because he was Jewish? Why is this case being hushed up?” Zemmour said this week.

“In late February, Jérémy Cohen was murdered and crushed under a tram as he fled after being beaten by a gang. What was presented as an accident could be an anti-Semitic murder. How to explain the silence on this affair and its motives?” said Le Pen, calling for a parliamentary inquiry into the incident.

Follow Chris Tomlinson on Twitter at @TomlinsonCJ or by email to ctomlinson(at)

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