It is considered unlikely that Russia will be able to meet the need for goods on the sanctions list itself or through exports from countries such as China. There are likely to be problems with the procurement of machines, vehicle parts and data storage. However, resourceful Russian businessmen have long since created ways for more luxury cars to come into the country, for example via Russia’s neighbor Kazakhstan. Putin has always emphasized that everything will continue to exist – just at a higher price.
problems for the defense industry
However, according to the EU, the EU export ban on so-called dual-use products is already crippling Russia’s military capabilities. Important armaments factories, which produce air-to-air missiles and tanks, for example, had to be closed due to the lack of imported goods.
In addition, the EU export bans affect IT companies, mobile phone providers and the Russian car industry, according to Brussels. After the departure of western car manufacturers, Soviet brands such as the Moskvich are now being revived in Russia. The government wants to make cheap loans possible so that people buy more cars again. Nevertheless, many Russians lack the money.
According to EU information, Russia’s civil aviation is suffering from the ban on flying into European airspace – but above all from the export restrictions on spare parts and services issued by the EU and the USA. From an EU perspective, most Russian airlines are no longer able to meet international security requirements. From the EU’s point of view, the problems in Russia are exacerbated by the fact that, according to estimates, around 70,000 IT specialists have recently left the country and another 100,000 are likely to follow.
Energy sanctions are having an effect
The experts also expect significant effects from the implementation of the coal and oil embargo that has already been decided. The ban on Russian coal imports will take full effect on August 10 – affecting a quarter of global Russian coal exports worth around eight billion euros a year, according to the EU.
The value of Russian crude oil imports to the EU in 2021 was around EUR 48 billion and that of petroleum products EUR 23 billion. 90 percent of this is to be eliminated when the import of Russian crude oil by sea is banned from December 5 – and from February 5 of processed Russian petroleum products.
Russian oil goes to India
According to an expert, the disappearance of the EU market will result in considerable strategic problems for Russia because, according to EU figures, 45 percent of the national budget is fed by oil revenues. Markets were already avoiding trading in Russian oil. Russian oil was recently offered at a price discount of up to 35 euros per barrel (159 liters). According to Moscow, India is particularly pleased about the Russian deliveries.